The NFL Depot
by Dave Mest Jr.
Week 3 Preview – 9/23/12
Welcome back, one and all, to the NFL Depot!
I’m your host Dave Mest! Due to an unwanted bout with the flu, this week’s column is going to be short and sweet. We have my top two games of the week, and my other picks of the week. We will also have Tarn’s Corner, the Depot’s handicapper, with his top plays as well. Plus, Bay’s Fantasy play of the week will be on tap as well. So, with a very weak, let’s get to it!
I had a few games I liked, but these two games stood out the most. So I bring you Dave’s top two games of the Week.
Houston vs. Denver (4:15): At this point in the season, Houston is the class act in the AFC. The Texans get the chance to prove they are, “top dog material”, with a big game in Denver. I like what I’m seeing out of Houston, in this early season, they have shown a balance needed to win. The Texans run game is on track with Foster, and Tate, as this combo chewed up a bad Jacksonville defense, last week. Matt Schaub, really hasn’t been tested this year, but I see that changing.
After a bad week in Atlanta, Denver, and Peyton Manning, has to come out guns a blazing. I see this as a bit of a redemption game, for Manning, and Denver. Atlanta, gave Manning fits last week, forcing him out of the pocket, and shut down the Broncos running game.
The Denver defense was flat out bad last week, a better performance will be needed this week, against Houston, or things could get ugly.
Top Two Keys to Victory: 1. Denver’s Defense needs to step it up, this week. Denver has to shut down Arian Foster, as the Texans offense keys off him. But, the Broncos have to do a better job against the lesser targets. The Broncos took away Jones, and Turner, for the most part, but left Tony Gonzalez, and Roddy White hurt them, last week. The same thing can’t happen this week with Owen Daniels, and Kevin Walter. 2. Peyton Manning has to get the running game going early, force the Texans defense into a guessing game, allowing Manning to use play action, and pick the Texans secondary apart. Also, Denver has to control the line of scrimmage, and the clock for that matter, keep Houston’s offense off the field.
Dave’s pick: I like Houston to win the game, by the smallest of margins. 24-23 Texans.
New England vs. Baltimore (8:20 Sunday night): A revenge game! After last year’s AFC Championship game and both teams coming off of bad losses last week, this game could get ugly. Ugly, makes for good football!
After last week’s ugly loss against Arizona, look for Tom Brady, and the New England offense, to come out with more of a balanced offense.
New England can’t tell their hand with the Ravens defense. The loss of Aaron Hernandez played a bigger part than expected. The Pats will have to find a way to make up for Hernandez’s absence, running the ball a little more may help. But, against Baltimore’s stern run defense, that might not be a good idea.
Baltimore is coming off a tough loss as well, a one point loss to Philadelphia.
Baltimore’s offense has to use more balance, and not let down if they get a lead. Where Baltimore’s defense was great, in turn overs, it was that bad down the stretch, giving up a late touchdown win to the Eagles.
Top Two Keys to Victory: 1. Baltimore has to get on, and stay on Tom Brady. They have to hit him, make him move; keep him out of the pocket. Take away his comfort zone in Gronkowski, and Welker, force him to beat you with other guys. 2. The Pats have to stop Ray Rice, force Joe Flacco to beat you with his arm. Taking away Rice, takes away a good chunk of the Ravens offense. Dave’s pick: I like the Ravens in a close one as well. 27-24 Ravens.
Now on to the pick ’em part of the column, with an even week of 8-8, and 17-15 for the season, here are my week 3 picks.
St. Louis vs. Chicago (1:00) 23-16 Bears
Buffalo vs. Cleveland (1:00) 17-14 Browns
Tampa Bay vs. Dallas (1:00) 24-20 Cowboys
N.Y. Jets vs. Miami (1:00) 27-23 Dolphins
San Francisco vs. Minnesota (1:00) 31-21 49ers
Kansas City vs. New Orleans (1:00) 35-20 Saints
Cincinnati vs. Washington (1:00) 27-24 Redskins
Detroit vs. Tennessee 31-23 (1:00) Lions
Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis (1:00) 23-17 Colts
Philadelphia vs. Arizona (4:05) 21-17 Eagles
Atlanta vs. San Diego (4:05) 26-21 Falcons
Pittsburgh vs. Oakland (4:25) 28-20 Steelers
Green Bay vs. Seattle (8:30 Monday night) 28-17 Packers
We now take the short trip over to Tarn’s Corner for his plays of the week. Tarn went 3-2-1 last week, 7-4-1 overall for the season.
Philadelphia @ Arizona over/under 42.5 Tarn’s Pick: Take the Over
New York Jets @ Miami over/under 41.5 Tarn’s Pick: Take the Over
Green Bay @ Seattle over/under 45.5 Tarn’s Pick: Take the Over
Houston @ Denver over/under 44.5 Tarn’s Pick: Take the Over
Kansas City @ New Orleans over/under 51 Tarn’s Pick: Take the Over
The 6th Man Pick of the Week: Atlanta @ San Diego over/under 47.5 Tarn’s Pick: Take the Over
Bay’s Fantasy Play/pick up of the week: Reggie Bush
Well that brings another close to the week; I hope to see you back for week 4. Till that time See Ya!
You can reach me on Facebook David Mest Jr or on Twitter @blitzburgh6